Betting systems allow punters to create a calculated strategy that can maximize winners or prevent major losses. They remove emotion from betting and make it more likely that goals will be achieved.
OLBG member Scratville spends inordinate amounts of time analysing trainer records to find those that produce profitable results year after year. He then backs all runners from that stable.
Martingale System
This betting system focuses on preventing huge losses while allowing players to build up their profits over a short period. However, it is important to note that this strategy is unlikely to pay off in the long term.
The Martingale system involves doubling your wager after every loss. It is credited to John Henry Martindale, who owned several gambling properties in London in the 18th century.
For this strategy to work, the player must possess an infinite bankroll and tables with unlimited wagering limits. In reality, this is impossible and the Martingale approach collapses under mathematical scrutiny. However, when used correctly it can help bettors win small amounts of money. This is especially true when using this strategy for lower stakes games. For example, a player who wins $10 on their first bet will set that profit aside and wager $20 on the next hand.
Fibonacci System
This betting system is based on the Fibonacci sequence. It is a negative progression system and it is suitable for casino games that offer close to 50% chance of winning, including roulette, baccarat and blackjack.
It encourages you to reduce your stake after a win, which helps you keep a control over the size of your losses. This is a good way to avoid getting carried away by the excitement of winning and losing large amounts of money.
The increased size of your bet is not as drastic as the doubling in the Martingale system, but it will take multiple spins to recover losses. However, you will eventually win your losses back and turn a profit, so it is a safer and more disciplined approach to gambling than the Martingale System.
Kelly Criterion
The Kelly criterion is the mathematically optimal ratio of your bankroll to bet on any given selection. It is a simple formula, and many of the best sports betters use it.
You can calculate it using the kelly_back_dec and kelly_lay_dec betting functions on the Betfair exchange, taking into account your own back/lay odds, the quoted price of your selection and any commisions that are payable.
If your calculation spits out a negative number, the criterion recommends walking away from your bet. Alternatively, you can reduce the risk of overestimating your edge by only betting fractions of the Kelly criterion’s suggested bet. This is known as a Fractional Kelly bet. This strategy also mitigates the impact of variance on your winnings and losses. By only wagering as much as your bankroll allows, you limit your maximum drawdown.
Reverse Martingale/Paroli System
The reverse martingale is a less risky progression system that can help you avoid going broke when betting on events where you’re unlikely to win large amounts of money. It works by reducing your initial stake in the event of a loss and increasing it after each win. However, it’s important to use proper bankroll management and only stake sums you can afford to lose. You can practice this strategy by running a simulation of it on the GSimulator website.
Regardless of which roulette system you choose to use, it’s important to remember that there is no way to guarantee a winning streak. This is because the probability of losing any given bet is greater than the chance of winning it. Increasing your bets after losses will only increase your average loss.
Arbitrage
Arbitrage involves simultaneous buying and selling of similar financial assets in different markets, resulting in a risk-free profit. It is usually only possible to realise such gains in very large volumes and requires substantial amounts of capital and high-speed software to spot and act on split-second opportunities. This is why it’s primarily employed by hedge funds and other institutional investors.
The sudden fluctuations in pricing that occur on various markets are the source of arbitrage opportunities. These are spotted by traders who have automated systems that monitor the availability of these opportunities on a minute-by-minute basis.
Some argue that arbitrage is good as it maintains market efficiency, while others point to the risks involved in attempting to make profits from inefficient pricing. Regardless, it’s still one of the most common methods used by traders to generate short-term profits.
